Welcome to the 1st Annual Cavs Consensus Survey! With the help of all of you (and a special thanks to the Cavs subreddit), I set out to find how Cavs fans feel about our team, both in terms of optimism for the future, and the evaluation of the present. So in that pursuit, I created the Cavs Consensus Survey. It was a total of 31 questions, spanning both our team, and the NBA at large. Hopefully the first of many, my goal is that this survey will not only serve as a snapshot of this moment, but that as the years advance, it will be a reference point for how perceptions evolve and change over time.
275 of you generous fans took that time to answer A LOT of questions. And for that, I thank you sincerely. Without any more delay, I give you the results of this year’s 2024-25 Cavs Consensus Survey.
Section A: The Cleveland Cavs Offseason
1.) How Do You Feel About The Cavaliers Offseason?
Results: More than three-quarters of Cavs fans walked away from this offseason happy (84.6% to be exact). Nobody in the entire sample (273 respondents) chose “extremely negative”, and there were just 3 survey participants who selected “negative”.
My Take: I’m feeling positive. The Cavs got three big extensions done in Donovan, Mobley and Allen, as well as avoiding losing Okoro to an offer sheet. They drafted a guy with legitimate two-way wing potential who plays bigger than his size. By hiring Atkinson, I expect increased pace will lead to some defensive regression, but the Cavs playoff offense needed to be addressed. I crave a more diverse system and a focus on Evan’s growth, and that is what is being promised. The Jarrett Allen extension, seemingly out of nowhere, was a HUGE win.
2.) How Would You Describe Your Feelings About The Kenny Atkinson Hiring?
Results: Kenny’s hiring was extremely well-received, and future survey questions will indicate just how much optimism Cavs fans have. There was not a single survey participant who fell on the “doomer” side of this question, as just 17 of the 273 chose to take a wait and see approach (neutral).
My Take: I fell into the “positive” column here. I’m of the belief that the hire had to be someone with an offensive focus and track record, and Kenny’s past results with a very pedestrian roster in Brooklyn give me hope. I believe this is a man who will pull more out of our role players.
3.) Evan Mobley’s Extension (5/$224 Mil) Will Prove To Be…
4.) Jarrett Allen’s Extension (3/$91mil) Will Prove To Be…
5.) Isaac Okoro’s Contract (3/$33-38mil) Will Prove To Be…
Results: Jarrett Allen’s extension was viewed most favorably, with nearly 75% of respondents believing he will outplay his price tag. Isaac Okoro seems to have found a happy middle ground, as 58.8% indicated “fair value”, 32.7% feel it will be “a bargain”, while only 8.5% think it will be “an overpay” (23 of 272 respondents).
Evan Mobley’s data indicates that while the fanbase is supportive (with 81.4% indicating his deal is a “fair value”), they are also the most hesitant to predict he’ll be “a bargain” (only 12% of the vote).
My Take: Allen should run away with the “bargain” vote, given what we know about the CBA. His extension cost doesn’t hit the books until 2027-28, so he’ll be making 28 million dollars at the same time Evan is making $45 million. Evan’s price tag is the main reason for the more subdued optimism. This league is heavily slanted towards squeezing the salary of bigs and throwing maxes at offensive engines, so the pressure is going to be on Mobley to justify the combined $70-80 million that Cleveland has committed to its future frontcourt.
6.) Which Of These Transactions Will Be Viewed Most Favorably One Year From Today?
Results: Donovan Mitchell’s extension won easily. Nearly 60% of Cavs fans selected securing three more years of Donovan as the most likely to be favorably viewed entering the 2025-26 season. Kenny Atkinson’s hiring made a strong showing (27.5%), with 2.5x the votes that Jarrett Allen’s extension received (11%).
My Take: Cavs fans get it. Over these two years, Donovan has separated himself from the rest of the core four in terms of his impact on our wins and losses. I was a bit surprised that Kenny’s hiring doubled up Allen’s extension, but I assume it’s indicative of Allen being a known commodity. Kenny is the lone new variable, and it will fall to him to take what is essentially the same roster, to greater heights.
Section B: The Jaylon Tyson Questions
7.) Which Of These Describe Your Feelings About The Tyson Pick?
(Disclaimer: The option for “I don’t have strong feelings in favor of, or against the pick” was added as an option midway through polling, based on suggestions from respondents. The first 180 respondents never had this as a choice)
Results: Over half the respondents (140 of 266) love the Jaylon Tyson pick. 31.2% of Cavs fans were leary on draft day, but were won over by Jaylon’s Summer League performance. A small percentage of Cavs fans wanted to trade the pick for a veteran (5%), and an even smaller percentage (2%) preferred another prospect.
8.) If Not Tyson, Who Were You Hoping The Cavs Landed At 20?
Results: While many chose to leave this field blank, 50 of you had an opinion. DaRon Holmes received nearly three times as many votes as the next closest choice. While the poll was anonymous, I applaud those of you with integrity to ignore the torn right achilles he suffered, all but guaranteeing you won’t be taking “i told you so” victory laps for at least a couple of years. Of the 5 voters that wrote in “Bronny”, 3 made sure to include the motives (luring Lebron James). Interestingly enough, both Furphy and Filipowski fell into the second round, despite their popularity in Cleveland. One of the respondents used the opportunity to let me know that “Tim Bontemps Sucks Ass”. I both agree, and hope you win the $150 Cavs Team Store Gift Card, Zak.
My Take: I loved Tyson in the pre-draft run up. My “top tier” of guys in play at #20 were Holmes, Tyson and Filipowski. As you can probably surmise from that list, I’m a big advocate of guys who do a lot of things well, and I value diverse skill sets as much or more than physical profile. Based on all of your answers, I am neither original nor special. But if you’re so inclined, the ‘Fro pod’s draft prospect deep dive is linked here. It’s enjoyable to listen back with the benefit of hindsight.
9.) Will Jaylon Tyson Be A Top-15 Rookie in the 2024 Draft Class?
10.) Will Jaylon Tyson Be A Top-10 Rookie in the 2024 Draft Class?
11.) Will Jaylon Tyson Be 2024 All-Rookie 1st Team?
Results: These answers trend in the way you’d expect, as confidence declines steadily until landing at just 11% of respondents believing Jaylon will be able to garner 1st Team All-Rookie. Over 84% of Cavs fans believe the #20 pick will perform above his draft slot, and deliver a top-15 rookie season. Roughly half believe Jaylon can perform at a top-10 rookie level.
My Take: I filled out my survey before preseason, and I confidently selected the top-10 option. I think preseason is showing the biggest impediment for Jaylon is going to be opportunity, not talent. But I’m willing to bet on Tyson’s talent, and our usual health woes may provide a meaningful opportunity to crack the rotation before season’s end. With a decision on Caris looming next summer, it would be useful for the Cavs to have an assessment of Jaylon’s ability to occupy a larger role.
12.) Who Will Win Rookie Of The Year?
Results: This question revealed that Cavs fans believe it’s a two-man race between Zach Edey of the Grizzlies (with 79 votes), and Reed Sheppard of the Rockets (with 67 votes). The second tier of choices (Risascher, Castle, and Sarr), made respectable showings, as they collectively combined for 20.4% of the vote.
My Take: Opportunity is a major factor in Rookie of the Year, so voting Edey (+300) seems like a safe bet. Sheppard was a revelation in Summer League, but preseason has shown just how many mouths there are to feed in Houston, and Sengun and Green are playing with their extension status presently in limbo. I think there is an easier path for Castle, Risascher, or even a dark horse like Clingan, because their teams lack the depth and talent that the Rockets possess.
Section C: The Donovan Mitchell Questions
13.) Do You Believe Donovan Mitchell Can Be The Best Player On A Championship Team?
Results: The people believe. 16 of 273 respondents would be terrible guests at a Cavaliers Playoff Watch Party.
My Take: Honestly, I probably don’t believe he can be the best player on a title team. But, I WANT to believe it desperately.
If Donovan Mitchell can be the best player on a championship team, it’s going to have to be in a manner similar to the Celtics, where his second option is a legitimate All-NBA caliber player in his own right. Jayson Tatum had the luxury of being able to survive a playoff run where his shot entirely abandoned him, in large part, because of the two-way greatness of Jaylen Brown. This past playoff run, Donovan dragged the Cavs to the second round on offensive greatness we simply shouldn’t rely on consistently (89 combined points in games 6&7). I think the best pathway to a title, in which Donovan is the Cavaliers best player, demands a Mobley All-Star ascent.
14.) As of now, do you believe the Cavaliers “won the trade” with the Utah Jazz that acquired Donovan Mitchell?
Results: 4 out of 5 Cavs fans agree. Yes, the Cavaliers won the Mitchell trade. The other 20% were roughly evenly split between “No”, and “No Clear Winner Or Loser”.
My Take: The moment Mitchell resigned, I feel comfortable declaring this a “win” for Cleveland. To acquire a top-15 player, AT AGE 26, was always going to be expensive. It’s practically unheard of in the NBA. Those guys do not typically move around via unrestricted free agency either. Now, thanks to this summer’s extension, the Cavaliers will have at least 5 years of Spida, spanning the majority of his athletic prime (ages 26 to 31).
Lauri has become a great player, and was a huge loss, but he’s finally being paid as such, after signing a $240 million deal this summer. Years from now, when we know what the draft capital becomes for Utah, or what the ceiling of the “core four” proved to be, we might feel differently, but I think this summer tipped the scales towards a Cavaliers “win”, because they secured an additional three years of being an East contender on the rise.
15.) Donovan Mitchell Is Most Likely To Be…
Results: Cavs fans seem to believe Donovan is headed for yet another 2nd Team All-NBA, after missing last year’s due to injury rules. 59 brave optimists are predicting higher, as they believe Donovan will secure a 1st Team All-NBA distinction this year.
My Take: He was right there with Shai two years ago for the final 1st Team spot. Last year, he was a lock for 2nd Team and a top-10 MVP candidate before injuries derailed him. I believe Donovan Mitchell, if fully healthy, is a top-8 player in terms of MVP chances THIS SEASON, so consider me confident that Donny can land on 2nd Team All-NBA with relative ease. I’m knocking on everything around me that is made out of wood.
Section D: Predicting The Future Of The Cavs
16.) In 2024-25, Darius Garland Will Be Better Than the 2022-23 Version Of Himself (22/8/3 on 59%TS)?
Results: Two-thirds (182) of you believe Darius can not only bounce back, but improve on 22/3/8 on 46/41 splits with 59% true shooting. 92 (33.6%) of you were more hesitant.
My Take: I’d say no, but not in a pessimistic, anti-Garland way. I absolutely think Darius will have a bounce back year. But, I expect Mobley will cyphen attempts as he puts up considerably more shots per game, and Kenny is going to rely on the bench more than JB ever did.
You’ve probably noticed a trend here. These survey results lean towards the optimistic (as indicated by 94.1% of you believing Donovan can be the best player on a title team). I think what this question says to me is that the Cavs fandom is fairly divided here, and that’s wise. What Darius did in 2022-23 was wildly underrated. That level of production and efficiency, while integrating a massive usage superstar in Mitchell, should have garnered FAR more credit than it got.
17.) Which Member Of The “Core Four” Is Least Likely To Be On The Roster Next Season?
Results: Initially this question was shaping up to be close to a 50-50 split between Jarrett and Darius. But as the season opener approached, the votes started to fall more on Darius’s side of the ledger. More than half of the Cavs fanbase (58.3%) expect that if any member of the core four is jettisoned, it will be the longest tenured one.
My Take: I think this vote would have between the ‘Fro and Darius, if not for one important factor, which is the contract disparity. Perhaps the shift toward Darius later in the voting period, is indicative of some preseason recency bias, as the ‘Fro has poured it on. In just 23 minutes per game, Jarrett is averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds on a blistering 71% from the floor.
18.) Will Evan Mobley Win Defensive Player Of The Year?
Results: The Cavs faithful are skeptical. In a survey otherwise filled with optimism, only 73 out of 274 respondents believe Evan will reach the top of the defensive award mountain.
My Take: Vegas probably has it right. Wemby exists (-150), and all of Evan’s historical footnotes of 2 years ago (2nd youngest to ever make any all-defense team, 1st guy to make 1st Team All-Defense within his first two years in the league), are being rewritten by the Frenchman. There has never been a Cavalier winner of this award in over 40 years of its existence. In fact, only one Cavalier has ever finished in the top five. Lebron James did it three separate times (2009,2010, and 2017).
BUT…
The underdog optimism should be high, because Evan enters the season healthy, coming off a playoff stage where he was an absolute force. He starts the season with the fourth best odds (via DraftKings +1400, even better than reigning DPOY, Rudy Gobert). That, coupled with what will likely be a better TEAM defense than San Antonio, might allow Evan to pull off an upset before the Victor reign begins. While Oklahoma City is profiling to be an absolute monster defensively, the hope would be credit is hard to attribute to any one Thunder player with Holmgren, Dort, and Caruso all drawing headlines.
19.) Will Evan Mobley Make 1st Team All-Defense?
Results: The answer is a resounding yes. 82.1% of the Cavalier fan voters are expecting Mobley to return to where he finished 2022-23.
My Take: The only thing that should stop Evan is health and/or Allen shining too brightly. With the ability for voters to ignore positions, I think Evan has a great chance to resume the trajectory he was on 2 years ago. Is there a chance voters will go with a more traditional team structure, attempting to balance point of attack defenders with rim protectors? Sure. But Evan’s competition amongst the tall boys is the usual suspects. Rudy, Wemby, Bam, AD, Chet, and JJJ are all going to be vying for coveted 1st Team spots.
20.) Predict Evan Mobley’s Scoring Output In 2024-25.
Results: The weighting sweet spot appears to be somewhere between 17.5 points per game and 19.4 points per game. The most popular answer, with 77 respondents selecting it, was that Evan will average between 17.5 and 18.4 points per game.
My Take: My prediction would be for a shade above 18 points per game this year, but anything shy of 20 wouldn’t shock me. Through three preseason games, Mobley is averaging 10.3 FGA in only 26 minutes per game, and has increased his usage rate to over 23%. If Evan can carry this momentum into the regular season, it’s hard to imagine he won’t make an appreciable statistical jump.
21.) Will Caris Levert Be A Cleveland Cavalier On March 1st, 2025?
Results: This answer was one of the most evenly divided in the entire survey. A slight majority of the 272 respondents predict that Caris Levert will be moved prior to the NBA buyout deadline, so presumably they either think he’ll be traded, or bought out.
22.) Will Caris Levert Be A Cleveland Cavalier On October 1st, 2025?
Results: Less than 20% of Cavs fans envision a future where Caris is on the team beyond this next offseason.
My Take: I don’t think Caris is going anywhere in-season, as he holds more value to the Cavs than they can likely recoup by trading him. Teams don’t generally value 30 year olds in their walk year, and if Caris lands on another team, it probably requires bundling him with what minimal draft assets the Cavs have. I expect ultimately Caris will find himself signing a smaller contract than he is currently on next summer (whether that’s here in Cleveland or elsewhere).
23.) Will The Cavaliers Win More Or Less Games Than Last Year?
24.) How Many Games Will The Cavaliers Win This Year?
Results: 89.7% would take the over in Vegas (currently set at 48.5 wins). Two-thirds (66%) of Cavs fans believe this year’s Cleveland squad will win 51 games or more. One lone pessimist, coincidentally also named Bob (no relation), cornered the market on disappointment, selecting 36-40 wins.
My Take: Lump me in with the masses. I’d fall on the low end of that 51-55 range. Last year, Boston was the only team in the East to surpass 50 wins (64-18), but the manner in which they did it, suppressed the rest of the East. Much of their 14 game cushion came at the expense of other contenders. Boston was a combined 19-8 (70% win rate) against Eastern Conference playoff teams last year (New York, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Orlando, Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami). The Cavs on the other hand, were just 11-15 (42% win rate) against that same group last year. We know Cleveland can take out the trash. They need to make some gains against the quality teams.
25.) What Seed Will The Cavaliers Finish?
Results: 121 people say the Cavaliers are destined for the 3rd seed. Another 71 think we’ll land in the same exact spot (4th seed). I was pleased to see 5 of you were bold enough to predict the top spot. Your lack of faith in the Boston Celtics warms my heart. Only 3 Negative Nancy’s think we’re going to slide to the 6th seed.
My Take: I was amongst the 51 of you who selected the 2nd seed. I think Cleveland was arguably the second best team in the East last year had they stayed healthy, and I’m trying to manifest the Knicks struggle to compensate for the lack of depth and the absence of Mitchell Robinson. After all, if we don’t believe in ourselves, who will?
26.) Who Would You Prefer To Face In The First Round?
Results: I hope Indiana Fans don’t stumble upon this survey, because nearly half of Cavs fans (48.1%) DO NOT believe their Conference Finals run was a sign of things to come. Another 30.9% of respondents want a rematch with the Magic. Unsurprisingly, almost nobody is asking for a rematch with either team that ended the Cavs last two playoff run, with less than 4% of the combined vote going to the Celtics or Knicks.
My Take: I think the most interesting thing to me here was the sizable gap between the Sixers (8 votes) and the Bucks (32 votes). I think the Bucks have most of the same issues (age and health), that the Sixers have, with a title run under their belt. If you asked me which superstar (Joel or Giannis) I’d rather avoid in the playoffs, it would be the Greek Freak 11 days out of 10. The four of you who chose the Celtics would run into a burning building to save a piano. Just stupid levels of confidence.
27.) What Would You Deem An Acceptable Outcome This Season?
Results: Cavs fans are pragmatic. They expect progress, but only 5.5% of the 272 respondents will be upset if Cleveland doesn’t make the NBA Finals. 54% of Cavs fans want the team to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, while 37.5% would be satisfied with exiting in the 2nd Round following a competitive series. 2 fans simply want the Cavs to make the playoffs.
My Take: I can live with a “strong 2nd Round showing”. I’d prefer an Eastern Conference Finals appearance. But more than any specific playoff outcome, I’d take a “healthy core four in the playoffs” and just live with the results. Where our season ends is secondary to assessing what this core four is capable of, in high leverage games.
Section E: General NBA Questions
28.) A Year From Today, Who Will Be Viewed As The Best Coaching Hire Of The 2024 Offseason?
Results: 271 respondents chimed in on this one, and 154 of them said it will be our own Cavaliers head coach, who is viewed as the prize of the 2024 cycle. Don’t tell Wizards fans, but a single, brave respondent named Eric chose Brian Keefe (0.4%), which is why his sliver (the bright red one next to JB) is barely visible on this pie chart. JB Bickerstaff made a respectable showing, which I assume is some logical combination of “nowhere to go but up” and a recognition of the impact he can have upon a young, undisciplined team.
My Take: I went with JB. Similar to Coach of the Year, the winner is often the man leading the team who makes the biggest leap, or gets the most out of the perceived least. I think Charles Lee is also a solid option in that mold.
It will be very hard for Kenny or Budenholzer to create separation with the relatively successful teams they inherited, barring a strong Conference Finals or Finals run. Taking a terrible team to even a middle of the road team is going to be much easier to see growth. JB just needs to slap some lipstick on his pig.
29.) A Year From Today, Which Of These Transactions Will Be Viewed Most Favorably?
(Disclaimer: This survey was posted prior to the Karl-Anthony Towns trade.)
Results: I did you all a disservice in combining Caruso & Hartenstein into one option. It probably unfairly skewed the results in Oklahoma City’s favor. But with 62.3% of the vote (170 votes), it would have been interesting to see how trading for Bridges & Towns would rate against Caruso and Hartenstein. I do think the answers illustrate some skepticism surrounding Paul George’s addition in Philadelphia, as he failed to win over even 10% the voters.
My Take: I think it’s easily OKC. Regardless of the star power of a Bridges or Towns, the Knicks lost significant player & draft capital to obtain both those stars, and they’re now an apron team, leaving them reasonably thin with minimal flexibility. The Thunder on the other hand, gave up little to nothing to acquire a guy who I believe was an All-Defense 1st Team calibur player in Alex Caruso. While Hartenstein cost a pretty penny, zero draft assets were used to execute either move, so their war chest of up to 4 first rounders in the 2025 draft (probably 3, because I’m not betting on a top 20 finish for Utah) is still entirely intact.
30.) A Year From Today, Which Of These Transactions Will Be Viewed Most Favorably?
Results: Okoro’s three-year deal, averaging $11million per year (barring “unlikely” incentives) received 170 of a total 273 votes cast. While a minority of you liked the Patrick Williams deal, the largest of all the contracts (and the only one with a player option), the respondents were pretty evenly divided between Toppin and Fontecchio’s deals.
My Take: I disagree with the consensus here. Fontecchio is a baller, and probably the best player, independent of salaries, in this question. While I think Detroit should have fought to get a third year, the average annual value ($8 million per year) is tremendous. They say “offense gets you paid” in the NBA, and if that’s true, I think you could question if both the Williams and Okoro deals will stand the test of time. Obi Toppin’s deal is reasonable in a vacuum, but with the Pacers historical hesitance to dive into the luxury tax (they have crossed the luxury tax threshold since 2005), I have some doubts about the prudence of committing significant dollars to a guy whose opportunity will be largely dependent on Myles and Pascal.
31.) Who Will Win NBA MVP This Season?
Results: Cavs fans generally voted similarly to the Vegas odds. Luka (+350) was the top choice, garnering exactly 50% of the total vote. Anthony Edwards (+1200) outperformed his Vegas odds, as the Cavs fans felt he had a better chance than Giannis (+850) to win MVP. Unsurprisingly, Wemby was the favorite amongst the “deep odds” picks (>+2000). For those wondering, Donovan Mitchell is +10,000.
My Take: I’d probably lean towards Shai. Vegas seems to believe OKC is going to be vying for the best record in the league, and with the talent they added this summer, there’s little reason to think that Shai won’t continue to ascend. This survey was mostly conducted prior to the Karl Anthony-Towns trade, so I suspect Brunson’s chances of winning will probably be worse than last year with the addition of such a prolific big.
Thank you to everyone who participated in this year's survey. I will announce the winner at the conclusion of the season. Be sure to launch the season with the Fear the 'Fro podcast, and if you enjoyed what we've compiled here, give me a 5-star review on Apple here, or on Spotify here.